What Is The BETSHARP Positive EV Platform?
BETSHARP constantly scans betting markets searching for NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAF, NCAAB, tennis and soccer betting opportunities that our experimental machine learning algorithms think have a positive expected value (positive EV). The platform provides the user with links so they can reduce the chance of missing bets in fast moving markets.
Periodically during the FREE beta trial the algorithms BETSHARP uses will be updated to take into account previous results, new sportsbooks and new markets. BETSHARP will endevour to record and publish the results of every selection listed on the platform at odds available when that selection first appeared.
Please remember that this is an experimential algorithm. Any selections you decide to follow you do so at your own risk. Please stay safe and only ever bet what you can afford to lose.
What Is Positive EV?
Positive expected value occurs when the chance of an event occurring is greater than the implied probability of the odds of that event occurring.
This postiive expected value is written at the top left on the BETSHARP panel for each selection.
If you were offered odds of +100 on a fair coin landing on heads there would be zero expected value in the bet. The probability of the event occurring would be exactly the same as the implied probability of the odds. On every individual spin you would have a 50% chance of winning or losing $100. Although you may win or lose due to short term sequences of heads or tails, over thousands of bets you would expect to win exactly the same as you lose.
But if you knew that the coin was biassed to land on heads 60% of the time the bet would have positive EV. The implied probability of the odds is still 50% but the probability of the event occurring is 60%. Individual bets would still lose 40% of the time but in the long run you would expect to make a profit.
For example, imagine you bet $100 on 1000 spins staking a total of $100,000. You would expect to win $60,000 (600 spins) and lose $40,000 (400 spins) giving a profit of $20,000. The expected profit of $20,000 from $100,000 staked can be represented as 20%.
How Does BETSHARP Find Positive EV?
To find positive expected value bets we need to know both the odds of the bet and the probability of the bet winning. BETSHARP scans betting markets to get the latest odds and estimates the winning probabilities by following the sharp money.
Sports betting differs from spinning a coin in that every real life event is a one off. The Rams will never play the Bengals again in Super Bowl LVI. On any given day the probability of a Rams victory would be different depending on injuries, form, conditions and so on. Everyone can have a different opinion on the probability of the Rams winning as it is subjective whereas everyone knows a fair coin objectively has a 50% chance of landing on heads.
The sharpest gamblers in the world use vast databases of results, statistics, television analysis and machine learning algorithms to calculate the probability of events occurring. The founders of BETSHARP have been developing ever changing algorithms using historical results for soccer and horse racing in the UK for over two decades. It is our intention to use the same techniques for NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL matches in years to come now that betting has been legalized in the USA.
The second method of calculating winning probability is to follow the sharp money. Recreational sportsbooks like Fandual, Draftkings and BetMGM in the USA and Paddypower and Skybet in the UK generally have two main traits:
The restrictions by the sportsbooks on sharp gamblers by most sportsbooks means that the sharp action congregates on betting exchanges and professional sportsbooks.
In the UK racing pricing is dominated by the Betfair Exchange. Although well past its heyday, professional gamblers can still bet several thousand pounds on a horse to win near the start of a race on the exchange. This compares to being able to bet pence with bookmakers once an account is clipped. Because the sharp money is on the Exchange and the markets have no juice the prices represent an accurate implied probability of each horse winning. If a price steams in on the exchange bigger prices can exist with the slow moving bookmaker. These prices generally have positive EV.
The same applies on sports betting although outside the main leagues and competitions the Betfair Exchange often has shockingly low liquidity. Sharp sports gamblers have to go elsewhere to the Asian markets or to Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle takes decent size bets on major sports and claims to welcome winners. Like the Betfair Exchange their odds are fast moving and attract the sharp money. Unlike Betfair, Pinnacle has juice that has to be removed to use the odds as an input to the probability. Using these probabilities against slow moving recreational sportsbooks positive EV bets can be found.