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Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals odds

Pittsburgh
Pirates
SM rating 1493 · #16
7 – 1
Final
Pirates -1.5 covered
Under 10.5
vs the most common closing line
Saturday, July 4
11:05 AM ET
Nationals Park
Washington
Nationals
SM rating 1462 · #25
PIT 47%WSH 53%
Fair moneyline
+112 / -112
PIT / WSH, no vig
Market win %
59% / 41%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
WSH +12 pts
SharpModels 53% · market 41% (no vig)
Ratings
1493 / 1462
PIT / WSH, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something. These two are 12 points apart.

Closing lines

This game was played before we started collecting prices (22 October 2026), so we have its closing prices only, from DraftKings, BetMGM and bet365: no line movement or player props. A price can differ from the book's own by a cent or two.

MarketBest
Pirates
Moneyline
-159
bet365
-164 -161 -159
Nationals
Moneyline
+135
bet365
+134 +135 +135
Pirates
Spread
-1.5+100
BetMGM
-1.5-102 -1.5+100 -1.5-105
Nationals
Spread
+1.5-115
bet365
+1.5-119 +1.5-120 +1.5-115
Over
Total
10.5-102
BetMGM
10.5-108 10.5-102 10.5-105
Under
Total
10.5-112
DraftKings
10.5-112 10.5-118 10.5-115
Margin
Moneyline
3.8% 4.6%4.1%3.8%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (half a point is worth more where games often land). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

WSH line
-3
PIT +3
+501-909 - -
-2.5
PIT +2.5
+372-588 +350-526 -
-2
PIT +2
+342-526 - -
-1.5
PIT +1.5
+248-357 +240-333 -
-1
PIT +1
+201-278 - -
+1
PIT -1
+104-137 - -
+1.5
PIT -1.5
-119-102 -120+100 -115-105
+2
PIT -2
-154+117 - -
+2.5
PIT -2.5
-182+137 -200+154 -
+3
PIT -3
-233+171 - -
+3.5
PIT -3.5
-263+193 -303+220 -
+4
PIT -4
-357+249 - -
+4.5
PIT -4.5
-400+273 -476+320 -
+5
PIT -5
-556+354 - -
+5.5
PIT -5.5
-588+377 - -
+6
PIT -6
-909+485 - -
+6.5
PIT -6.5
-909+507 - -

Top number: WSH at that line; bottom: PIT at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
5
Over / Under
- -2500+850 -
5.5
Over / Under
- -1000+550 -
6
Over / Under
- -1000+525 -
6.5
Over / Under
- -625+400 -
7
Over / Under
- -556+360 -
7.5
Over / Under
- -357+250 -
8
Over / Under
- -303+220 -
8.5
Over / Under
- -250+185 -
9
Over / Under
- -208+155 -
9.5
Over / Under
- -154+118 -
10
Over / Under
- -128+100 -
10.5
Over / Under
-108-112 -102-118 -105-115
11
Over / Under
- +118-154 -
11.5
Over / Under
- +140-182 -
12
Over / Under
- +170-227 -
12.5
Over / Under
- +185-250 -
13
Over / Under
- +240-333 -
13.5
Over / Under
- +250-357 -
14
Over / Under
- +320-476 -
14.5
Over / Under
- +333-500 -
15
Over / Under
- +425-714 -
15.5
Over / Under
- +450-769 -
16
Over / Under
- +575-1111 -

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.