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Miami Marlins at Houston Astros odds

Miami
Marlins
SM rating 1491 · #19
3 – 5
Final
Astros -1 covered
Under 9
vs the most common closing line
Tuesday, July 21
8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
Houston
Astros
SM rating 1506 · #13
MIA 45%HOU 55%
Fair moneyline
+121 / -121
MIA / HOU, no vig
Market win %
47% / 53%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
HOU +2 pts
SharpModels 55% · market 53% (no vig)
Ratings
1491 / 1506
MIA / HOU, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something.

Closing lines

This game was played before we started collecting prices (22 October 2026), so we have its closing prices only, from DraftKings, BetMGM and bet365: no line movement or player props. A price can differ from the book's own by a cent or two.

MarketBest
Marlins
Moneyline
+105
bet365
+102 -102 +105
Astros
Moneyline
-118
BetMGM
-123 -118 -125
Marlins
Spread
+1.5-185
bet365
+1-149 -1.5+155 +1.5-185
Astros
Spread
-1.5+155
bet365
-1+114 +1.5-189 -1.5+155
Over
Total
9-120
bet365
9-123 9-128 9-120
Under
Total
9+101
DraftKings
9+101 9+100 9+100
Margin
Moneyline
2.8% 4.5%4.4%4.2%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (half a point is worth more where games often land). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

HOU line
-4.5
MIA +4.5
+489-909 - -
-4
MIA +4
+461-833 - -
-3.5
MIA +3.5
+338-526 +320-476 -
-3
MIA +3
+310-476 - -
-2.5
MIA +2.5
+230-323 +220-303 -
-2
MIA +2
+202-278 - -
-1.5
MIA +1.5
+158-196 +154-200 +155-185
-1
MIA +1
+114-149 - -
+1
MIA -1
-169+128 - -
+1.5
MIA -1.5
-204+154 -189+155 -
+2
MIA -2
-278+201 - -
+2.5
MIA -2.5
-323+226 -333+240 -
+3
MIA -3
-455+302 - -
+3.5
MIA -3.5
-500+329 -500+333 -
+4
MIA -4
-769+440 - -
+4.5
MIA -4.5
-833+466 - -
+5
MIA -5
-1429+630 - -

Top number: HOU at that line; bottom: MIA at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
4
Over / Under
- -2500+900 -
4.5
Over / Under
- -1429+675 -
5
Over / Under
- -1250+625 -
5.5
Over / Under
-556+359 -625+400 -
6
Over / Under
-526+335 -588+375 -
6.5
Over / Under
-370+256 -400+280 -
7
Over / Under
-312+223 -357+250 -
7.5
Over / Under
-213+160 -238+175 -
8
Over / Under
-189+143 -208+155 -
8.5
Over / Under
-156+120 -161+125 -
9
Over / Under
-123+101 -128+100 -120+100
9.5
Over / Under
-102-128 +105-125 +100-120
10
Over / Under
+115-152 +120-154 -
10.5
Over / Under
+130-172 +135-179 -
11
Over / Under
+165-222 +180-238 -
11.5
Over / Under
+188-256 +200-278 -
12
Over / Under
+227-323 +250-357 -
12.5
Over / Under
+245-345 +270-385 -
13
Over / Under
+322-500 +350-526 -
13.5
Over / Under
+347-526 +375-588 -
14
Over / Under
- +450-769 -
14.5
Over / Under
- +475-833 -
15
Over / Under
- +625-1250 -

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.