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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds

New England
Patriots
SM rating 1599 · #8
29 – 26
Final
Bills -7 did not cover
Over 49.5
vs the most common closing line
Sunday, October 4
1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
Buffalo
Bills
SM rating 1697 · #2
NE 29%BUF 71%
Fair moneyline
+240 / -240
NE / BUF, no vig
Market win %
26% / 74%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
NE +4 pts
SharpModels 29% · market 26% (no vig)
Ratings
1599 / 1697
NE / BUF, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something.

Closing lines

This game was played before we started collecting prices (22 October 2026), so we have its closing prices only, from DraftKings, FanDuel and bet365: no line movement or player props. A price can differ from the book's own by a cent or two.

MarketBest
Patriots
Moneyline
+280
FanDuel
+275 +280 +270
Bills
Moneyline
-345
bet365
-357 -345 -345
Patriots
Spread
+6.5+100
FanDuel
+7-111 +6.5+100 +7-115
Bills
Spread
-7-105
bet365
-7-111 -6.5-122 -7-105
Over
Total
49.5-105
bet365
- 49.5-110 49.5-105
Under
Total
49.5-110
FanDuel
- 49.5-110 49.5-115
Margin
Moneyline
3.7% 4.6%3.7%4.4%
MarketBest
Patriots
Moneyline
+205
bet365
+200 +205
Bills
Moneyline
-250
bet365
-250 -250
Patriots
Spread
+4-110
bet365
+4.5-120 +4-110
Bills
Spread
-4.5+100
DraftKings
-4.5+100 -4-110
Over
Total
24.5-105
bet365
- 24.5-105
Under
Total
24.5-115
bet365
- 24.5-115
Margin
Moneyline
4.0% 4.5%4.0%
MarketBest
Patriots
Moneyline
+165
bet365
+164 +165
Bills
Moneyline
-200
bet365
-200 -200
Patriots
Spread
+2.5+100
bet365
+2.5+100 +2.5+100
Bills
Spread
-2.5-120
bet365
-2.5-120 -2.5-120
Over
Total
9.5-125
bet365
- 9.5-125
Under
Total
9.5+105
bet365
- 9.5+105
Margin
Moneyline
4.2% 4.3%4.2%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (getting off or onto 3 in the NFL is worth about 15-20 cents). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

BUF line
-17.5
NE +17.5
+281-435 - -
-16.5
NE +16.5
+246-357 - -
-15.5
NE +15.5
+227-333 - -
-14.5
NE +14.5
+208-294 - -
-13.5
NE +13.5
+175-244 - -
-12.5
NE +12.5
+160-222 - -
-11.5
NE +11.5
+148-204 - -
-10.5
NE +10.5
+135-185 - -
-9.5
NE +9.5
+115-154 - -
-8.5
NE +8.5
+108-145 - -
-7.5
NE +7.5
+100-133 - -
-7
NE +7
-111-111 - -105-115
-6.5
NE +6.5
-135+101 -122+100 -
-5.5
NE +5.5
-147+111 - -
-4.5
NE +4.5
-167+123 - -
-3.5
NE +3.5
-189+138 - -
-2.5
NE +2.5
-263+185 - -
-1.5
NE +1.5
-294+205 - -
+1.5
NE -1.5
-385+259 - -
+2.5
NE -2.5
-435+286 - -
+3.5
NE -3.5
-667+381 - -

Top number: BUF at that line; bottom: NE at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
35
Over / Under
- - -769+440
35.5
Over / Under
- - -714+415
36
Over / Under
- - -714+405
36.5
Over / Under
- - -625+355
37
Over / Under
- - -556+344
37.5
Over / Under
- - -455+300
38
Over / Under
- - -455+292
38.5
Over / Under
- - -417+275
39
Over / Under
- - -417+272
39.5
Over / Under
- - -385+254
40
Over / Under
- - -357+244
40.5
Over / Under
- - -323+220
41
Over / Under
- - -303+212
41.5
Over / Under
- - -278+200
42
Over / Under
- - -278+190
42.5
Over / Under
- - -263+185
43
Over / Under
- - -244+172
43.5
Over / Under
- - -213+158
44
Over / Under
- - -200+150
44.5
Over / Under
- - -185+135
45
Over / Under
- - -179+128
45.5
Over / Under
- - -169+123
46
Over / Under
- - -161+121
46.5
Over / Under
- - -154+115
47
Over / Under
- - -145+105
47.5
Over / Under
- - -135-105
48
Over / Under
- - -132-108
48.5
Over / Under
- - -130-110
49
Over / Under
- - -128-112
49.5
Over / Under
- -110-110 -105-115
50
Over / Under
- - -102-139
50.5
Over / Under
- - +105-145
51
Over / Under
- - +115-154
51.5
Over / Under
- - +123-169
52
Over / Under
- - +125-175
52.5
Over / Under
- - +130-179
53
Over / Under
- - +140-189
53.5
Over / Under
- - +150-200
54
Over / Under
- - +160-222
54.5
Over / Under
- - +165-233
55
Over / Under
- - +175-250
55.5
Over / Under
- - +180-256
56
Over / Under
- - +190-278
56.5
Over / Under
- - +200-278
57
Over / Under
- - +220-323
57.5
Over / Under
- - +228-333
58
Over / Under
- - +250-370
58.5
Over / Under
- - +258-385
59
Over / Under
- - +272-417
59.5
Over / Under
- - +274-417
60
Over / Under
- - +296-455
60.5
Over / Under
- - +308-476
61
Over / Under
- - +340-556
61.5
Over / Under
- - +344-556
62
Over / Under
- - +360-625
62.5
Over / Under
- - +365-625
63
Over / Under
- - +395-714
63.5
Over / Under
- - +405-714
64
Over / Under
- - +455-833

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.