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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos odds

Kansas City
Chiefs
SM rating 1592 · #10
@
Sunday, November 1
4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
Denver
Broncos
SM rating 1652 · #4
saysFull matchup analysis →
KC 36%DEN 64%
Fair moneyline
+181 / -181
KC / DEN, no vig
Market win %
53% / 47%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
DEN +17 pts
SharpModels 64% · market 47% (no vig)
Ratings
1592 / 1652
KC / DEN, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something, so the injury list is the first place to look. These two are 17 points apart.

Game lines

Updated 4:11 AM ET
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -120
bet365
 -125 -122 -120 -122 -125 -120 -122
Broncos
Moneyline
 +105
Fanatics
 +105 +104 +100 +100 +105 +100 -104
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5-108
FanDuel
 -1.5-110 -1.5-108 -1.5-108 -1.5-109 -1.5-111 -1.5-110 -1.5-108
Broncos
Spread
 +1.5-110
DraftKings
 +1.5-110 +1.5-112 +1.5-110 +1.5-112 +1.5-111 +1.5-110 +1.5-113
Over
Total
 41-109
BetRivers
 41.5-105 41.5-106 41.5-108 41-109 41-111 41.5-108 40.5-117
Under
Total
 41.5-110
BetMGM
 41.5-115 41.5-120 41.5-110 41-112 41-111 41.5-114 40.5-104
Margin
Moneyline
 3.2% 4.2%3.8%4.3%4.7%4.2%4.3%5.6%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -120
Fanatics
 -122 -120 -120 -120 -120
Broncos
Moneyline
 +102
DraftKings
 +102 -102 -104 +100 +100
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5+114
BetRivers
 -0.5-102 -0.5+100 -1.5+114 -0.5+100 -0.5+100
Broncos
Spread
 +0.5-118
DraftKings
 +0.5-118 +0.5-128 +1.5-141 +0.5-120 +0.5-120
Over
Total
 20.5+108
BetRivers
 20.5+102 20.5+105 20.5+108 20.5-105 20.5+104
Under
Total
 20.5-122
DraftKings
 20.5-122 20.5-125 20.5-134 20.5-125 20.5-123
Margin
Moneyline
 3.9% 4.3%4.8%5.2%4.3%4.3%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -120
BetRivers
 -120 -120
Broncos
Moneyline
 +102
FanDuel
 +102 -104
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5+112
BetRivers
 -0.5-104 -1.5+112
Broncos
Spread
 +0.5-122
FanDuel
 +0.5-122 +1.5-139
Over
Total
 20.5+100
FanDuel
 20.5+100 20.5-105
Under
Total
 20.5-118
BetRivers
 20.5-120 20.5-118
Margin
Moneyline
 3.9% 3.9%5.2%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -118
BetRivers
 -122 -118 -118 -125 -120
Broncos
Moneyline
 +102
DraftKings
 +102 -104 -106 -105 +100
Chiefs
Spread
 -0.5+136
DraftKings
 -0.5+136 -1.5+142 -1.5+145 -0.5+135 -0.5+130
Broncos
Spread
 +0.5-154
bet365
 +0.5-162 +1.5-174 +1.5-182 +0.5-172 +0.5-154
Over
Total
 7.5+123
BetRivers
 7.5+110 7.5+118 7.5+123 7.5+105 7.5+115
Under
Total
 7.5-130
DraftKings
 7.5-130 7.5-142 7.5-152 7.5-141 7.5-135
Margin
Moneyline
 3.5% 4.3%4.9%5.3%6.3%4.3%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -118
FanDuel
 -118
Broncos
Moneyline
 -104
FanDuel
 -104
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5+126
FanDuel
 -1.5+126
Broncos
Spread
 +1.5-154
FanDuel
 +1.5-154
Over
Total
 12.5-122
FanDuel
 12.5-122
Under
Total
 12.5+100
FanDuel
 12.5+100
Margin
Moneyline
 4.9% 4.9%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -128
FanDuel
 -128
Broncos
Moneyline
 +104
FanDuel
 +104
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5+136
FanDuel
 -1.5+136
Broncos
Spread
 +1.5-166
FanDuel
 +1.5-166
Over
Total
 7.5-102
FanDuel
 7.5-102
Under
Total
 7.5-118
FanDuel
 7.5-118
Margin
Moneyline
 4.9% 4.9%
MarketBest
Chiefs
Moneyline
 -114
FanDuel
 -114
Broncos
Moneyline
 -106
FanDuel
 -106
Chiefs
Spread
 -1.5+136
FanDuel
 -1.5+136
Broncos
Spread
 +1.5-170
FanDuel
 +1.5-170
Over
Total
 10.5-112
FanDuel
 10.5-112
Under
Total
 10.5-108
FanDuel
 10.5-108
Margin
Moneyline
 4.5% 4.5%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Shortening drifting: a book's price or line moved in the last 6 hours (by at least a point of implied chance, or a line). Arrows point the way the number moved, next to the line when the line moved; hover or tap for what it was.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Kalshi prices include an estimate of Kalshi's trading fee, so they show what the bet costs. How we price Kalshi

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (getting off or onto 3 in the NFL is worth about 15-20 cents). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

DEN line
-9
KC +9
 - - +333-475 +350-560 +375-588 - -
-8.5
KC +8.5
 +326-507 +400-620 +310-450 +330-530 +350-526 - -
-8
KC +8
 - - +300-450 +320-500 +350-526 - -
-7.5
KC +7.5
 +295-446 +340-500 +275-400 +290-435 +320-476 - +300-456
-7
KC +7
 - - +260-375 +270-400 +310-455 - -
-6.5
KC +6.5
 +238-342 +265-370 +220-300 +225-305 +250-357 - +245-335
-6
KC +6
 - - +210-285 +215-286 +250-357 - -
-5.5
KC +5.5
 +209-294 +230-310 +190-275 +190-250 +220-303 - +212-300
-5
KC +5
 - - +185-250 +185-245 +210-286 - -
-4.5
KC +4.5
 +191-265 +200-265 +175-235 +175-230 +200-270 - +194-257
-4
KC +4
 - - +170-225 +165-220 +190-250 - -
-3.5
KC +3.5
 +169-231 +176-230 +155-210 +155-195 +170-222 - +170-223
-3
KC +3
 - - +140-190 +140-177 +155-196 - -
-2.5
KC +2.5
 +124-166 +128-164 +120-160 +120-150 +125-156 - +127-156
-2
KC +2
 - - +115-150 +117-143 +120-147 - -
-1.5
KC +1.5
 +112-150 +116-148 +110-145 +112-137 +115-141 - +113-138
-1
KC +1
 - - +105-135 +107-130 +110-135 - -
-0.5
KC +0.5
 - - - +104-125 - - -
PK
KC PK
 - - - +102-125 - - -
+0.5
KC -0.5
 - - - +102-125 - - -
+1
KC -1
 - - -110-118 -107-114 -105-116 - -
+1.5
KC -1.5
 -110-110 -112-108 -110-108 -112-109 -111-111 -110-110 -113-108
+2
KC -2
 - - -120-108 -117-105 -116-105 - -
+2.5
KC -2.5
 -127-104 -128+100 -130-102 -121+100 -125+105 - -127+104
+3
KC -3
 - - -155 -139+114 -147+120 - -
+3.5
KC -3.5
 -174+130 -174+136 -175+135 -159+128 -175+140 - -170+133
+4
KC -4
 - - -190 -175+138 -196+155 - -
+4.5
KC -4.5
 -198+146 -200+154 -210 -182+143 -208+160 - -186+150
+5
KC -5
 - - -220 -195+150 -222+170 - -
+5.5
KC -5.5
 -219+160 -225+172 -225 -200+155 -227+175 - -223+170
+6
KC -6
 - - -250 -225+175 -270+200 - -
+6.5
KC -6.5
 -253+183 -265+200 -275 -240+185 -286+210 - -257+194
+7
KC -7
 - - -325 -295+220 -333+240 - -
+7.5
KC -7.5
 -329+230 -370+265 -350 -335+235 -357+250 - -335+245
+8
KC -8
 - - -400 -375+255 -400+280 - -
+8.5
KC -8.5
 -372+255 -430+300 -425 -385+265 -435+290 - -
+9
KC -9
 - - -450 -420+280 -455+310 - -
+9.5
KC -9.5
 -403+272 -460+320 -450+310 -420+285 -455+310 - -400+300
+10
KC -10
 - - -525+360 -500+325 -556+360 - -
+10.5
KC -10.5
 -495+320 -560+370 -550+375 -530+335 -588+375 - -488+355
+11
KC -11
 - - -625+425 -590+360 -667+410 - -
+11.5
KC -11.5
 -557+351 -650+420 -650+425 -625+370 -714+430 - -
+12
KC -12
 - - -650+450 -715+400 -769+450 - -

Top number: DEN at that line; bottom: KC at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
27
Over / Under
 - - - - -1000+550 -1000+550 -
27.5
Over / Under
 -1100+553 -1000+560 - - -833+475 -833+460 -
28
Over / Under
 - - - - -833+475 -833+455 -
28.5
Over / Under
 -960+508 -950+540 - - -714+430 -769+435 -
29
Over / Under
 - - - -770+450 -714+430 -714+420 -
29.5
Over / Under
 -730+425 -720+450 - -625+390 -556+360 -625+355 -733+400
30
Over / Under
 - - - -590+380 -526+350 -588+346 -
30.5
Over / Under
 -581+362 -560+370 - -500+330 -455+310 -455+300 -
31
Over / Under
 - - - -480+320 -435+290 -455+292 -
31.5
Over / Under
 -496+321 -500+340 -450+310 -435+295 -400+280 -417+274 -
32
Over / Under
 - - -450+300 -420+290 -385+265 -417+272 -
32.5
Over / Under
 -428+286 -440+310 -400+280 -385+265 -357+250 -385+262 -426+285
33
Over / Under
 - - -375+270 -360+255 -333+240 -370+246 -
33.5
Over / Under
 -342+238 -340+250 -325+240 -305+220 -286+215 -303+212 -
34
Over / Under
 - - -325+230 -295+215 -286+210 -303+210 -
34.5
Over / Under
 -302+214 -295+220 -285+210 -265+200 -250+190 -278+200 -
35
Over / Under
 - - -275+200 -250+190 -244+185 -278+190 -
35.5
Over / Under
 -265+190 -265+200 -275+190 -240+180 -227+175 -263+185 -257+186
36
Over / Under
 - - -250+185 -230+170 -213+165 -244+172 -
36.5
Over / Under
 -223+163 -225+172 -225+170 -205+160 -192+150 -213+158 -
37
Over / Under
 - - -210+155 -190+150 -182+145 -200+150 -
37.5
Over / Under
 -185+137 -184+142 -185+138 -175+135 -161+130 -179+128 -
38
Over / Under
 - - -175+135 -165+130 -156+125 -169+123 -
38.5
Over / Under
 -168+126 -170+132 -165+125 -155+125 -147+120 -161+121 -163+127
39
Over / Under
 - - -160+120 -148+118 -141+115 -154+115 -
39.5
Over / Under
 -145+109 -146+114 -150+115 -136+112 -135+110 -147+108 -144+113
40
Over / Under
 - - -145+105 -127+105 -125+105 -141+100 -
40.5
Over / Under
 -126-105 -118-104 -135+100 -117-104 -116-105 -130-110 -117-104
41
Over / Under
 - - -120-108 -109-112 -111-111 -128-112 -
41.5
Over / Under
 -105-115 -106-120 -108-110 -103-120 -105-116 -108-114 +100-122
42
Over / Under
 - - -110-120 +104-125 +100-120 -105-135 -
42.5
Over / Under
 +101-134 +102-130 -105-125 +108-130 +105-125 -102-139 +104-144
43
Over / Under
 - - +100-135 +117-143 +115-141 +105-145 -
43.5
Over / Under
 +120-160 +122-156 +110-145 +123-155 +120-147 +115-154 +117-156
44
Over / Under
 - - +120-160 +133-167 +130-161 +123-169 -
44.5
Over / Under
 +137-185 +140-180 +125-165 +140-180 +135-172 +132-182 +133-178
45
Over / Under
 - - +135-185 +150-195 +145-182 +138-189 -
45.5
Over / Under
 +153-208 +154-200 +140-190 +155-200 +150-192 +142-192 -
46
Over / Under
 - - +150-200 +165-215 +155-196 +152-204 -
46.5
Over / Under
 +169-232 +172-225 +155-210 +170-225 +160-208 +158-213 -
47
Over / Under
 - - +170-225 +188-250 +175-227 +172-244 -
47.5
Over / Under
 +200-279 +210-280 +175-235 +200-265 +185-244 +185-263 +194-270
48
Over / Under
 - - +190-275 +215-295 +190-250 +190-278 -
48.5
Over / Under
 +219-310 +230-310 +195-275 +220-305 +200-270 +200-278 -
49
Over / Under
 - - +210-295 +235-335 +215-286 +210-303 -
49.5
Over / Under
 +249-361 +255-350 +220-300 +245-345 +220-303 +215-312 -
50
Over / Under
 - - +230-325 +265-385 +240-333 +240-345 -
50.5
Over / Under
 +283-422 +285-400 +240-325 +270-385 +250-357 +248-370 +270-400
51
Over / Under
 - - +275-375 +300-455 +280-400 +274-417 -
51.5
Over / Under
 +329-512 +330-480 +290-400 +310-480 +280-400 +284-435 -
52
Over / Under
 - - - +340-530 +310-455 +296-455 -
52.5
Over / Under
 +362-581 +360-530 - +350-530 +310-455 +304-476 -
53
Over / Under
 - - - +380-590 +320-476 +332-526 -
53.5
Over / Under
 +413-700 +400-620 - +390-625 +330-500 +340-556 +376-567
54
Over / Under
 - - - +430-715 +360-556 +360-625 -
54.5
Over / Under
 +457-810 +460-750 - +440-715 +375-588 +370-625 -
55
Over / Under
 - - - - +410-667 +400-714 -
55.5
Over / Under
 +519-990 +520-900 - - +410-667 +410-714 -
56
Over / Under
 - - - - +430-714 +440-769 -

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.

Team totals

Team
Chiefs - O/U 20.5-120 / -106 - O/U 20.5-109 / -112 - - -
Broncos - O/U 20.5+102 / -130 - O/U 20.5+105 / -127 - - -

Line movement