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Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts odds

Dallas
Cowboys
SM rating 1461 · #20
@
Sunday, November 8
1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
Indianapolis
Colts
SM rating 1403 · #25
DAL 49%IND 51%
Fair moneyline
+103 / -103
DAL / IND, no vig
Market win %
63% / 37%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
IND +14 pts
SharpModels 51% · market 37% (no vig)
Ratings
1461 / 1403
DAL / IND, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something, so the injury list is the first place to look. These two are 14 points apart.

Game lines

Updated 4:11 AM ET
MarketBest
Cowboys
Moneyline
-180
BetRivers
-218 -184 -180 -223
Colts
Moneyline
+180
DraftKings
+180 +154 +148 +163
Cowboys
Spread
-3-118
BetRivers
-3.5-115 -3.5-105 -3-118 -
Colts
Spread
+3.5-105
DraftKings
+3.5-105 +3.5-115 +3-104 -
Over
Total
50.5-110
BetRivers
51.5-110 50.5-115 50.5-110 -
Under
Total
51.5-110
DraftKings
51.5-110 50.5-105 50.5-110 -
Margin
Moneyline
0.0% 4.1%4.0%4.4%6.6%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Shortening drifting: a book's price or line moved in the last 6 hours (by at least a point of implied chance, or a line). Arrows point the way the number moved, next to the line when the line moved; hover or tap for what it was.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Kalshi prices include an estimate of Kalshi's trading fee, so they show what the bet costs. How we price Kalshi

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (getting off or onto 3 in the NFL is worth about 15-20 cents). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

IND line
+3
DAL -3
- - -104-118 -
+3.5
DAL -3.5
-105-115 -115-105 - -

Top number: IND at that line; bottom: DAL at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
50.5
Over / Under
- -115-105 -110-110 -
51.5
Over / Under
-110-110 - - -

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.

Line movement