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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots odds

Green Bay
Packers
SM rating 1542 · #15
@
Sunday, November 8
4:25 PM ET
Gillette Stadium
New England
Patriots
SM rating 1599 · #8
GB 36%NE 64%
Fair moneyline
+178 / -178
GB / NE, no vig
Market win %
41% / 59%
No-vig average of the books
Model vs market
NE +5 pts
SharpModels 64% · market 59% (no vig)
Ratings
1542 / 1599
GB / NE, SharpModels

SharpModels is a benchmark built only from team ratings: it doesn't see injuries, rest or lineup news. When it and the market disagree, the market often knows something, so the injury list is the first place to look.

Game lines

Updated 6:11 PM ET
MarketBest
Packers
Moneyline
+145
DraftKings
+145 +134 +125 +133
Patriots
Moneyline
-152
BetRivers
-175 -158 -152 -163
Packers
Spread
+3-105
DraftKings
+3-105 +3-110 +2.5-105 -
Patriots
Spread
-2.5-117
BetRivers
-3-115 -3-110 -2.5-117 -
Over
Total
46.5-108
BetRivers
47.5-110 46.5-110 46.5-108 -
Under
Total
47.5-110
DraftKings
47.5-110 46.5-110 46.5-113 -
Margin
Moneyline
1.1% 4.3%3.8%4.5%4.7%

Margin: how much a book builds into its moneyline (its implied chances add up to more than 100%). Lower is fairer; the lowest is in green. Under Best, the margin if you took the best price on each side.

Shortening drifting: a book's price or line moved in the last 6 hours (by at least a point of implied chance, or a line). Arrows point the way the number moved, next to the line when the line moved; hover or tap for what it was.

Every price change, book by book: tap the table icon by any selection, line, team total or player.

Kalshi prices include an estimate of Kalshi's trading fee, so they show what the bet costs. How we price Kalshi

Best spread and total weigh the line against the price: a better line is worth paying a little more for, most of all onto key numbers (getting off or onto 3 in the NFL is worth about 15-20 cents). Moneyline: simply the best price.

Alternate lines

NE line
-3
GB +3
-115-105 -110-110 - -
-2.5
GB +2.5
- - -117-105 -

Top number: NE at that line; bottom: GB at the opposite line. Gold = best top number.

Total
46.5
Over / Under
- -110-110 -108-113 -
47.5
Over / Under
-110-110 - - -

Top number: over; bottom: under. Gold = best top number.

Line movement